What If
Rigorous counterfactuals grounded in real history
What If the Cuban Missile Crisis Had Gone Nuclear?
One Soviet officer's refusal to fire a nuclear torpedo in 1962 may be the closest brush with nuclear war on record. What if he'd said yes instead?
What If Franz Ferdinand's Driver Hadn't Taken the Wrong Turn?
The most cited butterfly-effect story in history: a stalled car and a wrong turn put the archduke in front of his own assassin. What a right turn would change.
What If Hitler Had Died in World War I?
Hitler was wounded at the Somme and gassed near Ypres. A rigorous counterfactual on the war that nearly killed him before he became history's monster.
What If the Library of Alexandria Never Burned?
The library never burned in one night. Its slow, centuries-long death raises a sharper question: how much would surviving have changed?
What If Napoleon Won at Waterloo?
Napoleon lost Waterloo by hours: a delayed attack, a missed interception. What if it had gone the other way? A grounded counterfactual.
What If the Spanish Armada Had Landed in 1588?
The Armada's plan hinged on a Dutch blockade it could not break. What if English fireships had failed on the one calm night that mattered?